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1st Round · Series Storyboard
Montréal vs Tampa Bay
MTL
Montréal
Final
4–3
MTL advances
TBL
Tampa Bay
Series-win probability
How Montréal's odds of taking the series moved with each game. Pre-series uses regulation-win rate via log5; each game updates the conditional win probability with the negative-binomial form.
Pre-series
36% / 64%
After Game 1
53% / 47%
After Game 2
38% / 62%
After Game 3
59% / 41%
After Game 4
41% / 59%
After Game 5
68% / 32%
After Game 6
44% / 56%
After Game 7
100% / 0%
HOW THIS SERIES ENDS · 10,000 REPLAYS
MTL 7
100.0%
MTL 4
0.0%
MTL 5
0.0%
MTL 6
0.0%
TBL 4
0.0%
TBL 5
0.0%
The six likeliest ways it finishes, replayed from the current series score.
THE SERIES UNDER THE HOOD
COMPLETED GAMES ONLY156Shots on goal196
5Power play5
55.7%Faceoffs won44.3%
300Hits228
126Blocked shots99
101Giveaways95
36Takeaways39
95Penalty minutes89
Game by game
Game 1Apr 19· Benchmark International Arena
MTL4
vsTBL3
Montréal draws first blood. GWG: J. Slafkovský. (OT)
Series after: MTL 1–0 TBLWatch recap ↗
Game 2Apr 21· Benchmark International Arena
MTL2
vsTBL3
Series tied 1–1. GWG: J. Moser. (OT)
Series after: MTL 1–1 TBLWatch recap ↗
Game 3Apr 24· Centre Bell
MTL3
vsTBL2
Montréal takes the series lead 2–1. GWG: L. Hutson. (OT)
Series after: MTL 2–1 TBLWatch recap ↗
Game 4Apr 26· Centre Bell
MTL2
vsTBL3
Series tied 2–2. GWG: B. Hagel.
Series after: MTL 2–2 TBL
Game 5Apr 29· Benchmark International Arena
MTL3
vsTBL2
Montréal pushes to match point at 3–2. GWG: A. Texier.
Series after: MTL 3–2 TBLWatch recap ↗
Game 6May 1· Centre Bell
MTL0
vsTBL1
Series tied 3–3. GWG: G. Goncalves. (OT)
Series after: MTL 3–3 TBL
Game 7May 3· Benchmark International Arena
MTL2
vsTBL1
Montréal clinches the series 4–3. GWG: A. Newhook.
Series after: MTL 4–3 TBLWatch recap ↗