RECORD VS REALITYRUNNING HOT
Edmonton5-0-1
- LUCK METER
- 109.1
- EARNED RECORD
- ≈ 4-2-0
- MODEL SAYS
- EXPECT A COOL-DOWN
The bounces are doing part of the work — about 3 points’ worth so far. Enjoy it, just don’t book April plans yet.
TONIGHT
EVERYONE IS OVERREACTING
GAME 7 OF 84
Is your team actually good — or just hot?
We replay the rest of the season 100,000 times a night to see who makes the playoffs — every formula is written out, and you can check our work.
Learn what The BlueLine is all about · How It Works · Open playoff race tools →
7 games is a small sample. Our playoff odds get sharp around game 20 — until then, the luck meter is the most useful number on this page.
Why? →RECORD VS REALITYTHE REAL DEAL
St. Louis3-2-1
- LUCK METER
- 99.8
- EARNED RECORD
- ≈ 3-3-0
- MODEL SAYS
- BELIEVE THE START
The record and the underlying play agree. This start is earned, not borrowed.
RECORD VS REALITYUNLUCKY
Calgary1-5-0
- LUCK METER
- 91.0
- EARNED RECORD
- ≈ 1-5-0
- MODEL SAYS
- DON’T PANIC
Playing better than the standings say, by roughly 0 points. The wins are coming.
THE LUCK LEADERBOARD
100 is normal. Way above it, a team is getting the bounces; way below, they’re snakebit. Both tend to drift back to the middle.
- Edmonton109.1DUE TO COOL OFF
- Seattle108.4DUE TO COOL OFF
- Boston107.6DUE TO COOL OFF
- Colorado107.1DUE TO COOL OFF
- NY Rangers105.4DUE TO COOL OFF
- Dallas104.6DUE TO COOL OFF
- NY Islanders104.3DUE TO COOL OFF
- Washington103.4DUE TO COOL OFF
- Pittsburgh102.2DUE TO COOL OFF
- Ottawa101.9ABOUT RIGHT
- Utah101.2ABOUT RIGHT
- Columbus100.9ABOUT RIGHT
- Winnipeg100.6ABOUT RIGHT
- Las Vegas100.3ABOUT RIGHT
- Vancouver99.9ABOUT RIGHT
- St. Louis99.8ABOUT RIGHT
- Florida98.8ABOUT RIGHT
- Detroit98.8ABOUT RIGHT
- Anaheim98.8ABOUT RIGHT
- Tampa Bay98.7ABOUT RIGHT
- Carolina98.6ABOUT RIGHT
- Minnesota98.4ABOUT RIGHT
- Toronto98.0ABOUT RIGHT
- Nashville97.9DUE TO HEAT UP
- Chicago97.3DUE TO HEAT UP
- Buffalo96.2DUE TO HEAT UP
- Montréal96.0DUE TO HEAT UP
- Philadelphia95.3DUE TO HEAT UP
- New Jersey93.6DUE TO HEAT UP
- Los Angeles93.5DUE TO HEAT UP
- San Jose91.5DUE TO HEAT UP
- Calgary91.0DUE TO HEAT UP
EARLY PLAYOFF CHANCES · HANDLE WITH CARE
- Carolina92%
- Las Vegas91%
- NY Rangers89%
- Utah85%
- Boston83%
- Seattle77%
Bar and number are the same thing: how often this club made the playoffs across the simulated seasons. This early that figure moves a lot from night to night, which is the point of showing it now rather than a tidier one. Projected points, and how wide their range still is, are on the full projections page.
Full projections →Story
The NHL playoff picture
An editorial read of where the race stands tonight across both conferences — beyond the tables.
The big picture
The NHL playoff race is in full swing with teams battling for the eight spots in each conference. Every night, regulation wins and stunning losses reshuffle the standings. Here's where things stand in the East and West heading into tonight.
No teams tracked yet
Go to any team page and tap Track in the top-right (next to Share). You can follow up to three teams. Their playoff odds and points will show here, and when those teams play, tonight’s important matchups appear in this section.
Tonight's Games
4-Point Game
TOR vs BUF — only 0 pts apart in the Atlantic Division. A regulation win reshuffles the division table and who is in line for an automatic top-three seed.
AWAY
BUF
at11:00 PM UTC
HOME
TOR
4-Point Game
OTT vs NYI — only 4 pts apart on different division tracks (division seeds vs wild card). A regulation win still jostles seeding, home ice, and tiebreakers in the race for the final spots.
AWAY
NYI
at11:00 PM UTC
HOME
OTT
4-Point Game
TBL (East) vs SEA (West) — only 2 pts apart in the league table. Each club is racing in its own division and wild-card picture; a regulation win still swings points and momentum on both sides.
AWAY
SEA
at11:00 PM UTC
HOME
TBL
4-Point Game
NSH vs SJS — only 0 pts apart in the wild-card pack. A regulation win moves the cut line for both clubs.
AWAY
SJS
at12:00 AM UTC
HOME
NSH
4-Point Game
MIN vs STL — only 2 pts apart in the Central Division. A regulation win reshuffles the division table and who is in line for an automatic top-three seed.
AWAY
STL
at12:00 AM UTC
HOME
MIN
4-Point Game
EDM vs UTA — only 1 pts apart on different division tracks (division seeds vs wild card). A regulation win still jostles seeding, home ice, and tiebreakers in the race for the final spots.
AWAY
UTA
at1:00 AM UTC
HOME
EDM
Where the race stands
Division top three and wild card order from current standings (not limited to one night’s games).
Eastern Conference
| RK | Team | GP | ROW | L | OTL | PTS | L10 | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carolina | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 6-1-1 | 91.7 |
| 2 | NY Rangers | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 6-2-0 | 89.4 |
| 3 | Boston | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 5-2-0 | 82.6 |
| 4 | Ottawa | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 5-2-0 | 53.0 |
| 5 | Tampa Bay | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 4-2-0 | 71.8 |
| 6 | Florida | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 3-2-2 | 51.0 |
| 7 | Toronto | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 3-3-1 | 39.4 |
| 8 | Buffalo | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 3-3-1 | 27.4 |
| Playoff Cutoff | ||||||||
| 9 | Pittsburgh | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 3-3-1 | 56.4 |
| 10 | Montréal | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 3-2-1 | 32.6 |
| 11 | NY Islanders | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 3-3-0 | 66.2 |
| 12 | Washington | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 3-3-0 | 46.1 |
| 13 | New Jersey | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 3-3-0 | 31.6 |
| 14 | Columbus | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 2-3-0 | 29.7 |
| 15 | Detroit | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1-3-2 | 27.8 |
| 16 | Philadelphia | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0-5-3 | 3.4 |
Western Conference
| RK | Team | GP | ROW | L | OTL | PTS | L10 | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Las Vegas | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 6-2-0 | 91.4 |
| 2 | Edmonton | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5-0-1 | 76.8 |
| 3 | Utah | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 5-2-0 | 84.8 |
| 4 | Seattle | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 5-2-0 | 77.4 |
| 5 | Minnesota | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 4-2-1 | 69.1 |
| 6 | Winnipeg | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4-1-1 | 70.7 |
| 7 | Colorado | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 4-2-0 | 65.5 |
| 8 | Anaheim | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 4-2-0 | 64.6 |
| Playoff Cutoff | ||||||||
| 9 | St. Louis | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 3-2-1 | 56.1 |
| 10 | Nashville | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 2-2-2 | 23.7 |
| 11 | San Jose | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 3-3-0 | 24.0 |
| 12 | Dallas | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2-3-1 | 55.8 |
| 13 | Chicago | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 2-5-0 | 4.6 |
| 14 | Vancouver | 8 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2-6-0 | 3.8 |
| 15 | Calgary | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1-5-0 | 16.7 |
| 16 | Los Angeles | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0-3-2 | 15.0 |
How We Calculate
Every stat is derived from mathematical models. Playoff odds come from 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations using recency-weighted Pythagorean win expectation, Log5 matchup probabilities, home/away adjustments, and regression to the mean. No AI, no gut feelings.
Season Progress
77 games left (avg.)8%
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A full season is a marathon, not a sprint.