Raw 2026–27 projections from last season’s goals — published 4 weeks before the odds lock. The bands are wide on purpose.
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Before a puck drops, the model plays the coming season 100,000 times per conference and records where each club finished. The bar is the middle eighty per cent of those seasons — a tenth of the time a club beat the right-hand end, a tenth of the time it fell short of the left — and the bright mark is the median. A wide bar is not a weak club; it is what 84 games of hockey does to any club.
| TEAM | LOW | MEDIAN | HIGH | RANGE (55–135 PTS) | ODDS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 112 | 122 | 132 | 99.9 | ||
| 100 | 111 | 121 | 94.8 | ||
| 99 | 110 | 120 | 94.3 | ||
| 99 | 110 | 120 | 98.7 | ||
| 97 | 108 | 118 | 88.8 | ||
| 93 | 104 | 114 | 75.7 | ||
| 93 | 104 | 114 | 93.8 | ||
| 92 | 103 | 113 | 92.2 | ||
| 91 | 102 | 113 | 70.3 | ||
| 90 | 101 | 112 | 65.0 | ||
| 90 | 101 | 112 | 70.6 | ||
| 89 | 100 | 111 | 64.9 | ||
| 88 | 99 | 110 | 88.2 | ||
| 87 | 98 | 109 | 85.6 | ||
| 86 | 97 | 107 | 49.0 | ||
| 84 | 94 | 105 | 37.6 | ||
| 81 | 92 | 103 | 26.7 | ||
| 80 | 91 | 102 | 22.2 | ||
| 80 | 91 | 101 | 56.2 | ||
| 79 | 90 | 100 | 15.0 | ||
| 77 | 88 | 98 | 10.3 | ||
| 77 | 88 | 99 | 40.6 | ||
| 77 | 88 | 99 | 34.9 | ||
| 76 | 87 | 98 | 11.8 | ||
| 76 | 86 | 97 | 27.7 | ||
| 75 | 86 | 97 | 23.5 | ||
| 73 | 84 | 94 | 22.2 | ||
| 73 | 83 | 94 | 21.5 | ||
| 71 | 82 | 93 | 3.1 | ||
| 69 | 80 | 91 | 11.5 | ||
| 65 | 76 | 87 | 3.1 | ||
| 57 | 68 | 78 | 0.5 |
Bands come from 100,000 simulated seasons per conference, seeded from last season’s goals for and against and played over the coming season’s 84 games. No summer signing is priced in — contract terms are published nowhere free, and a roster move is not a rating change until there are games to re-rate it against. The board is rebuilt weekly; this one was built August 24.
Ranked by how far each club’s playoff odds sit from 50% — the clubs whose season is genuinely undecided, not the ones with the widest bar. Bar width would rank nobody: across all 32 clubs it runs 20 to 22 points, because over 84 games the spread is set by the number of games far more than by the club playing them.
How the model works →Every club’s goals for and against last season, from the public standings. Nothing licensed, nothing scraped, nothing guessed — and no summer signing priced in.
The full 2026–27 schedule, simulated 100,000 times. Every number on this page is a count, not an opinion.
All 32 published in public, timestamped. Screenshot the ones you disagree with — receipts are the whole point.
The early board above keeps re-running every Monday until Sep 18. Then it freezes, in public, and the season gets to argue back.
WHAT OPENING ODDS LOOK LIKE →