Playoff Projections

Tables mirror the NHL race: top three in each division plus two wild cards. Playoff odds count how often a team qualifies under that format across 10,000 simulations (Pythagorean win expectation for remaining games). They are statistical estimates, not betting lines. "Exp. PTS" is the average season-ending point total; "Div. rank" is the average simulated finish within that team's division. First-round matchups follow current standings and can move as the race unfolds.

If you are new here: treat each percentage as “how often this team still makes the top eight in my simulations tonight,” not a guarantee. When two rivals are tied in the chart, look at games played and goal differential on the main standings—those break ties before the coin-flip math of the remaining schedule.

Eastern Conference

Projected 1st Round

Metropolitan — 1st vs WC2

Metropolitan — 2nd vs 3rd

Atlantic — 1st vs WC1

Atlantic — 2nd vs 3rd

Atlantic

#	Team	PTS	Exp. PTS	Record	ROW	Odds	Proj%	Exp. PTS	Div. rank	Proj%
1	BUFBuffalo	109	109	50-23-9	42	100%	58.8%	109	1	58.8%
2	TBLTampa Bay	106	106	50-26-6	40	100%	61.2%	106	2	61.2%
3	MTLMontréal	106	106	48-24-10	34	100%	55.0%	106	3	55.0%

Metropolitan

#	Team	PTS	Exp. PTS	Record	ROW	Odds	Proj%	Exp. PTS	Div. rank	Proj%
1	CARCarolina	113	113	53-22-7	39	100%	60.3%	113	1	60.3%
2	PITPittsburgh	98	98	41-25-16	34	100%	54.4%	98	2	54.4%
3	PHIPhiladelphia	98	98	43-27-12	27	100%	51.4%	98	3	51.4%

Wildcard

#	Team	PTS	Exp. PTS	GL	Record	ROW	Odds	Proj%	Exp. PTS	Div. rank	Proj%
1	BOSBoston	100	100	0	45-27-10	33	100%	54.2%	100	4	54.2%
2	OTTOttawa	99	99	0	44-27-11	38	100%	56.1%	99	5	56.1%
Playoff Cutoff
3	WSHWashington	95	95	0	43-30-9	37	0%	53.7%	95	4	53.7%
4	DETDetroit	92	92	0	41-31-10	30	0%	46.6%	92	6	46.6%
5	CBJColumbus	92	92	0	40-30-12	28	0%	50.0%	92	5	50.0%
6	NYINY Islanders	91	91	0	43-34-5	29	0%	48.3%	91	6	48.3%
7	NJDNew Jersey	87	87	0	42-37-3	29	0%	45.1%	87	7	45.1%
8	FLAFlorida	84	84	0	40-38-4	32	0%	45.3%	84	7	45.3%
9	TORToronto	78	78	0	32-36-14	23	0%	41.7%	78	8	41.7%
10	NYRNY Rangers	77	77	0	34-39-9	25	0%	47.5%	77	8	47.5%

Western Conference

Projected 1st Round

Central — 1st vs WC2

Central — 2nd vs 3rd

Pacific — 1st vs WC1

Pacific — 2nd vs 3rd

Central

#	Team	PTS	Exp. PTS	Record	ROW	Odds	Proj%	Exp. PTS	Div. rank	Proj%
1	COLColorado	121	121	55-16-11	48	100%	68.9%	121	1	68.9%
2	DALDallas	112	112	50-20-12	38	100%	60.4%	112	2	60.4%
3	MINMinnesota	104	104	46-24-12	31	100%	56.2%	104	3	56.2%

Pacific

#	Team	PTS	Exp. PTS	Record	ROW	Odds	Proj%	Exp. PTS	Div. rank	Proj%
1	VGKLas Vegas	95	95	39-26-17	30	100%	52.9%	95	1	52.9%
2	EDMEdmonton	93	93	41-30-11	32	100%	52.4%	93	2	52.4%
3	ANAAnaheim	92	92	43-33-6	26	100%	47.3%	92	3	47.3%

Wildcard

#	Team	PTS	Exp. PTS	GL	Record	ROW	Odds	Proj%	Exp. PTS	Div. rank	Proj%
1	UTAUtah	92	92	0	43-33-6	33	100%	55.5%	92	4	55.5%
2	LAKLos Angeles	90	90	0	35-27-20	22	100%	45.4%	90	4	45.4%
Playoff Cutoff
3	STLSt. Louis	86	86	0	37-33-12	33	0%	44.5%	86	5	44.5%
4	NSHNashville	86	86	0	38-34-10	28	0%	45.7%	86	6	45.7%
5	SJSSan Jose	86	86	0	39-35-8	27	0%	42.5%	86	5	42.5%
6	WPGWinnipeg	82	82	0	35-35-12	28	0%	44.1%	82	7	44.1%
7	SEASeattle	79	79	0	34-37-11	26	0%	42.5%	79	6	42.5%
8	CGYCalgary	77	77	0	34-39-9	27	0%	40.1%	77	7	40.1%
9	CHIChicago	72	72	0	29-39-14	22	0%	37.5%	72	8	37.5%
10	VANVancouver	58	58	0	25-49-8	15	0%	31.8%	58	8	31.8%