The draft lottery decides the order of selection for the earliest picks among teams that missed the playoffs (subject to league rules that change on a set schedule). Fans care because a few percentage points can mean the difference between drafting a franchise player and picking later in a thinner tier of talent.

Purpose. Without a lottery, the team with the worst record would always pick first. The NHL uses weighted odds to reduce the incentive to lose deliberately while still giving weaker teams better chances at top talent.

Mechanics (high level). Non-playoff teams are ranked by regular-season points (fewer points → better lottery position). Each slot receives official odds for moving into the top picks. The league runs a draw; results shuffle which team picks where among the lottery-eligible clubs.

Reading odds on trackers. A line like “18.5% chance at #1” refers to the published lottery weight for the lowest-ranked club in a given season’s ruleset—not a guarantee. Odds tables update when the league adjusts format; always cross-check the official NHL release for the year you are viewing.

Relationship to the standings page. Eliminated teams climb the lottery standings as their point totals fall relative to other non-playoff clubs. Playoff race sites project order and odds from current results, but the actual balls-in-machine process happens on the league’s timeline.

Caveats. Lottery math is discrete and tightly rule-bound. Tiebreakers for lottery order can differ from playoff tiebreakers. Traded conditional picks also complicate who ultimately selects—something pure standings math will not capture.

Takeaway. Treat lottery columns as structured probabilities anchored to NHL policy, not as predictions of which teenager a team will draft.

The BlueLine is an independent NHL analytics site and is not affiliated with the National Hockey League.