Draft Lottery Odds
Projected draft positions based on current standings. The worst record gets the best lottery odds.
Where every loss is secretly a win.
The table below ranks non-playoff clubs by points pace; “lottery %” is our model’s chance at the #1 pick given the official odds structure, not a crystal ball. Trades can still shuffle conditional picks—always double-check club-specific pick protection when a race tightens.
| Pick | Team | Record | PTS | GP Left | Lottery % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VAN | 25-49-8 | 58 | 0 | 18.5% |
| 2 | CHI | 29-39-14 | 72 | 0 | 13.5% |
| 3 | NYR | 34-39-9 | 77 | 0 | 11.5% |
| 4 | CGY | 34-39-9 | 77 | 0 | 9.5% |
| 5 | TOR | 32-36-14 | 78 | 0 | 8.5% |
| 6 | SEA | 34-37-11 | 79 | 0 | 7.5% |
| 7 | WPG | 35-35-12 | 82 | 0 | 6.5% |
| 8 | FLA | 40-38-4 | 84 | 0 | 6% |
| 9 | SJS | 39-35-8 | 86 | 0 | 5% |
| 10 | NSH | 38-34-10 | 86 | 0 | 3.5% |
| 11 | STL | 37-33-12 | 86 | 0 | 3% |
| 12 | NJD | 42-37-3 | 87 | 0 | 2.5% |
| 13 | NYI | 43-34-5 | 91 | 0 | 2% |
| 14 | CBJ | 40-30-12 | 92 | 0 | 1.5% |
| 15 | DET | 41-31-10 | 92 | 0 | 0.5% |
| 16 | WSH | 43-30-9 | 95 | 0 | 0.5% |
How the NHL Draft Lottery Works
The NHL Draft Lottery determines the selection order for the top picks in the annual Entry Draft. All teams that miss the playoffs are entered into the lottery, with the worst regular-season record receiving the highest odds of winning the first overall pick.
Two separate drawings are held to determine the first and second overall picks. Any non-playoff team can win either draw, regardless of their standing. The remaining draft positions are then assigned in inverse order of regular-season points — the worse your record, the higher you pick.
This system balances competitive fairness by giving weaker teams better odds at franchise-changing talent while preventing outright tanking, since even the worst team is only guaranteed a top-three pick, not the first overall selection.